The martingale of Hawk: rising based on the probabilities
The principle of Hawk's martingale
Hawk's martingale applies to all games for which one can bet on an event having about a chance on two to occur. It is perfectly adapted for the roulette (on the bets of color for example), but one can also use it for example with the craps, the blackjack, the Baccarat…
The principle consists in always betting on an event having a chance on two to occur. In the event of a success one starts again. In the event of a failure one needs to bet the double of the preceding stake. While thus proceeding, each winning blow will make it possible to win the basic stake, while each losing blow will be compensated by the next winning blow.
Example of application of Hawk's martingale
Let us take the example of part of roulette. One will bet on the exit of the red color. This event has about a chance on two to occur ("about" because the 0 decreases this probability). It is thus eligible for Hawk's martingale. The following table presents for a succession of blows, the stake to be applied and the result.
| Bet | Wager | Result | Profits | Balance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | |||||
| 1 | Red | 1 | Red | 1 | 1001 |
| 2 | Red | 1 | Red | 1 | 1002 |
| 3 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1001 |
| 4 | Red | 2 | Red | 2 | 1003 |
| 5 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1002 |
| 6 | Red | 2 | Black | -2 | 1000 |
| 7 | Red | 4 | Black | -4 | 996 |
| 8 | Red | 8 | Black | -8 | 988 |
| 9 | Red | 16 | Black | -16 | 972 |
| 10 | Red | 32 | Red | 32 | 1004 |
| 11 | Red | 1 | Red | 1 | 1005 |
| 12 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1004 |
| 13 | Red | 2 | Black | -2 | 1002 |
| 14 | Red | 4 | Black | -4 | 998 |
| 15 | Red | 8 | Red | 8 | 1006 |
| 16 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1005 |
| 17 | Red | 2 | Red | 2 | 1007 |
| 18 | Red | 1 | Red | 1 | 1008 |
| 19 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1007 |
| 20 | Red | 2 | Red | 2 | 1009 |
| 21 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1008 |
| 22 | Red | 2 | Black | -2 | 1006 |
| 23 | Red | 4 | Black | -4 | 1002 |
| 24 | Red | 8 | Red | 8 | 1010 |
| 25 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1009 |
| 26 | Red | 2 | Red | 2 | 1011 |
| 27 | Red | 1 | Red | 1 | 1012 |
| 28 | Red | 1 | Black | -1 | 1011 |
| 29 | Red | 2 | Red | 2 | 1013 |
| 30 | Red | 1 | Red | 1 | 1014 |
The table above shows that the balance increases overall, in spite of the momentary falls in the event of failure. On the 30 disputed blows, 16 are losing and 14 are winning. Although the number of winning blows is lower than the number of losing blows, it is noted that the total of the profits is higher on the whole losses. In addition it is noted that as envisaged the total profit (14) corresponds well to the product of the number of winning blows (14) by the basic stake (1).
Advantages and disadvantages of Hawk's martingale
Hawk's martingale presents several disadvantages. First of all the stake grows exponentially in the event of failure. One thus rather quickly arrives at very important stakes that the player can have difficulties to bet. In addition games have limits of settings. When the wager becomes very important, one can reach the wager limit of the casino.
The advantage of this martingale is to guarantee the possibility of restore all his debts (in condition obviously of knowing how to obtain the necessary stake!). Moreover, even if the number of winning blows is lower than the number of losing ones, the balance is overall positive. Another interest of Hawk's martingale is to ensure a continuous growth: the profit of a part corresponds to the product of the number of winning blows by the basic stake.